Rate my MNFL fantasy team

[RaiderNdaBlood]

Last year we posted our teams in the FF page and got some good feedback.

10th pick overall: (Los Fontaneros)

QB: Kurt Warner
RB: Steve Slaton
RB: Reggie Bush
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Marques Colston
TE: Owen Daniels
DEF: Titans
K: Neil Rackers

Bench:
RB: Donald Brown
RB: Leon Washington
RB: Julius Jones
WR: Brandon Marshall
WR: Chris Chambers
WR: Darrius Heyward-Bey
QB: Brett Favre

[Terrorblaze]

ur welcome

QB: Kurt Warner, Brett Favre
RB: Steve Slaton, Reggie Bush, Leon Washington, Donald Brown, Julius Jones
WR: Calvin Johnson, Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Chris Chambers, Darrius Heyward-Bey
TE: Owen Daniels
PK: Neil Rackers
TD: Tennessee Titans

Overview:

Your receivers are the strongest part of this team. While no team can be expected to be above average at all three core positions (QB/RB/WR), you are in the precarious position of being a bit weak at two of them.

Although you should not be counted out yet, you may need to be active on both the waiver wire and in trades to turn this team into a legitimate contender. The best way to achieve that might be to sacrifice some of your wide receiver strength to gain multiple players than can help your roster now. It's generally easier finding quarterbacks and wide receivers on the waiver wire than quality running backs.

For instance, last year, useful quarterbacks like Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco likely went undrafted. Even Kurt Warner wasn't drafted in early leagues. Likewise, running backs like Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Le'Ron McClain, Derrick Ward all could be had dirt cheap at the draft or shortly after. You are likely going to need to land some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.

Players we particularly like on this team include Leon Washington and Donald Brown. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs.
* With average inseason management, we think you have a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 2 of 2008:
Calvin Johnson vs. GB: 129 receiving yards, 2 TD
Brandon Marshall vs. SD: 166 receiving yards, 1 TD
Chris Chambers vs. DEN: 83 receiving yards, 2 TD
Julius Jones vs. SF: 141 combined yards, 1 TD
Kurt Warner vs. MIA: 361 passing yards, 3 TD

QB Summary:

We have Kurt Warner rated #10 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Brett Favre (ranked #25 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Warner turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.

Incidentally, Favre has what we project as a neutral matchup (GB) during Warner's bye.

RB Summary:

We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Steve Slaton ranked at #11 and Reggie Bush ranked 24th.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Leon Washington should serve as a very solid third running back. Donald Brown is also a very nice RB4.

Julius Jones is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

A quick note about the same-team Slaton/Owen Daniels and Bush/Marques Colston duos you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Steve Slaton is ranked #5 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first running back. Mark Wimer reasons, "Over 1600 combined yards (268/1282/9 rushing and 50/377/1 receiving) posted by Slaton last year, and his backups are the oft-injured Chris Brown, and some other guys (Ryan Moats, Arian Foster, Jeremiah Johnson). Slaton is one of the few RBs left in the entire league who isn't threatened by a complimentary running back - he should easily top 300 touches on the ball again this year. I think he's got VALUE stamped all over him given how low others are ranking Slaton at the moment. He's looked solid during the preseason, too."

Reggie Bush is ranked #9 by some of our writers, which would make him a great second running back and even a legitimate RB1. Clayton Gray reasons, "Well, if you know Bush will get hurt this year, then he's ranked too high. However, since projecting injuries can be shaky, let's just examine Bush the player. While he hasn't fulfilled his rookie expectations, Bush is still turning in excellent fantasy numbers. He has averaged over 5.6 receptions per game and over 1,000 yard per season. If he can stay healthy, Bush will turn in a monster season."

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.4 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Calvin Johnson is our #4 ranked receiver, Marques Colston is #13, and we have Brandon Marshall 29th.

We see Chris Chambers as an average fourth receiver. We really don't like Darrius Heyward-Bey at fifth receiver.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Chris Chambers is ranked #33 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Jeff Pasquino reasons, "Did I miss when Chris Chambers fell off the planet? It seems that everyone is overlooking him as a receiver for the Chargers. Vincent Jackson had a nice run last year, but Chambers has better talent and only needs to be healthy to be the top WR for San Diego. He has finished as a Top 25 WR in three of his nine career seasons but now is viewed as a risky pick due to injury. Considering you can grab him with a later fantasy selection in 2009 (ADP has him outside of Top 40 WRs), he represents good upside as a guy who has "been there, done that" three times over."

TE Summary:

Owen Daniels, who we have ranked #7, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Daniels, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Owen Daniels as high as #4, which would make him an above average first tight end. Jason Wood's take: "Daniels may not have the eye-popping athleticism of Andre Johnson, but he's sure handed, runs precise routes and is the man who bails out Matt Schaub when the deep routes are covered. He's one of the best TEs in the league that no one talks about."

Kicker Summary:

Neil Rackers, our seventh ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.

Defense Summary:

The Titans are probably not a difference-maker at defense, but they should be OK.

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Titans', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Titans + Texans = NYJ | TEN | NYJ | OAK | ARI | CIN | SF | BUF | SF | BUF | TEN | ARI | JAX | SEA | STL | SD
Titans + Cardinals = SF | HOU | NYJ | JAX | HOU | SEA | NYG | CAR | CHI | SEA | STL | ARI | MIN | STL | DET | STL
Titans + Colts = PIT | MIA | ARI | SEA | TEN | NE | STL | SF | SF | BUF | BAL | ARI | TEN | STL | MIA | NYJ

[LVradio]

Jesus how long did that take you?

[RaiderNdaBlood]

Agree with everything written about my team sans the QB evaluation. Looking back on the draft I had Mcnabb touted as my primary QB option but when round 4 came around I had already picked CJ, Colston and Slaton meaning I needed to go RB or QB. None of the RB's on the board at that time warrented that high of a pick (Pissed I passed on Ray Rice in hindsight he should have been my pick there) so I decided to go QB. It came down to Warner or Rivers and as long as Warner can keep himself upright he is a top 5 fantasy QB without a doubt.

Funny thing is I had talked myself into going WR-WR and had the perfect set up when AJ was still available in the 2nd round but I panicked and went RB.

Edit: Terror where did you get that program, was it free?

[Terrorblaze]

Jesus how long did that take you?

about 45 seconds

[LVradio]

about 45 seconds
Where is this program you speak of

[jokah03]

Would of passed on Marshall to look for a better RB..you'll be hurting unless Addai goes down or Thomas goes down.

[MannyBeltre]

ur welcome

Me Next! Me Next!

[Terrorblaze]

Me Next! Me Next!

:wanker:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning
RB: Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs, Jamaal Charles, Felix Jones
WR: Braylon Edwards, Donald Driver, Lee Evans, Domenik Hixon, Nate Burleson
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Marcedes Lewis
PK: Stephen Gostkowski
TD: New England Patriots

Overview:

We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back, and tight end is a plus for this team as well. Your squad is therefore easy for us to like despite a bit of weakness at the receiver position. But as weaknesses go, this is one is survivable. It's usually relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season. As long as you stay on top of things inseason, you should be among the top teams in the league.

Players we particularly like on this team include Aaron Rodgers, Nate Burleson, Brandon Jacobs, and Domenik Hixon. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
* With average inseason management, we think you have a 77 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 5 of 2008:
Brandon Jacobs vs. SEA: 145 combined yards, 2 TD
Lee Evans vs. ARI: 100 receiving yards, 1 TD
Michael Turner vs. GB: 121 combined yards, 1 TD
Domenik Hixon vs. SEA: 102 receiving yards, 1 TD
Aaron Rodgers vs. ATL: 313 passing yards, 3 TD
Felix Jones vs. CIN: 103 combined yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Aaron Rodgers should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #3 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.1 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

Eli Manning, who we have rated as the #18 QB, is a fine backup.

Incidentally, Manning has what we project as a bad matchup (OAK) during Rodgers's bye.

A quick note about the Rodgers/Donald Driver hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.

RB Summary:

Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Brandon Jacobs as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 1.9 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Michael Turner ranked at #6 and Jacobs ranked 10th.

Jamaal Charles should be a good third running back. Felix Jones should also be solidly above average at RB4.

As we mentioned earlier, the QB/receiver hookup tends to make your team a little more inconsistent. But that's not the case with the Turner/Tony Gonzalez pair you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more consistent if anything. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some of our staffers have Michael Turner as high as #5, which would make him an above average first running back. Jeff Pasquino's take: "Michael Turner has proven himself to be worth every penny that Atlanta owner Arthur Blank spent on him early in 2008. After three years of struggling to display his skills behind Tomlinson in San Diego, Turner put up huge numbers for the Falcons as they made the postseason last year. Turner has held off Jerious Norwood from making any play for more work and Turner still has a great deal of spring in his step. Turner should finish as a Top 10 RB again in 2009."

Some members of our staff have Jamaal Charles ranked as high as 32nd, which would make him a fine third running back. Jeff Tefertiller defends his high ranking as follows: "Charles will see more time this season than as a rookie. The new coaching staff will use him in space. The new coaching staff (and front office) will find ways to get the former Longhorn the ball in the open field. The poor Chief defense will keep the offense in obvious passing situations. Charles could easily have a bigger season than Johnson."

WR Summary:

We see both your starters at receiver as below average. Braylon Edwards is our 15th ranked WR, and we have Donald Driver at #30.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Lee Evans should be a good third receiver. Domenik Hixon should also be solidly above average at WR4.

Nate Burleson is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Braylon Edwards is ranked #13 by some of our writers. Jason Wood reasons, "Sure he dropped too many passes last year and yes, the team supposedly wanted to trade him. But the simple truth is Cleveland didn't trade him despite multiple offers, and Edwards should be in a better place under the new coaching staff. Edwards is one of the few WRs with Top 5 ability that can be had after the first couple of rounds."

Donald Driver is ranked #18 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average second receiver. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "Driver has put together a string of 1,000-yard seasons and is a player that is forgotten each preseason. He offers stability to the young Packer receivers and still makes the clutch reception. He has been a fantasy WR2 four of the last five seasons, including three Top 13 fantasy seasons. "

Some members of our staff have Lee Evans ranked as high as 20th, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Evans has burst through the 1,000 yards receiving barrier in 2 of his past 3 seasons, despite a lackluster supporting cast around him. However, Trent Edwards showed signs of taking strides as a passer in his sophomore season as the starting QB, with improved numbers across the board, and the arrival of Terrell Owens will loosen up the coverage on Evans significantly. This year, Evans has the highest ceiling of his career, in my opinion, and should be a solid WR2 for his fantasy owners. Hopefully, Owens' sore toe heals up soon so we can see them on the field together. "

TE Summary:

We like the choice of Tony Gonzalez to start at tight end. We have him ranked third overall at the position. He's about 0.8 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Marcedes Lewis is an adequate second tight end.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Marcedes Lewis is ranked #20 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine second tight end. Mark Wimer reasons, "Lewis didn't have a breakout season in his 3rd campagin, but there were positive developments. He and David Garrard are close on and off the field, and Garrard threw Lewis 72 balls during 2008, and increase of 15 targets from 2007. Lewis didn't catch a lot more balls, though (went from 37 receptions during 2007 to 41 in 2008), but he did add over a yard per reception to his average (10.6 during 2007, 11.9 during 2008), while gaining 489 yards. If he can up his TD production (2 each year the last two seasons), Lewis' numbers could perhaps put him on the cusp of TE1 production by the end of 2009. He's young (25), he's developing and improving, and he's simpatico with the team's starting QB. If the supporting cast of WRs can help loosen up defensive schemes (they were injury-riddled and subpar throughout 2008), Lewis may have a monster season this year. I like Lewis' upside a lot and will target him as my TE2 this season in most leagues, expecting to have him outproduce his draft position. "

Kicker Summary:

At about 1.1 points per game above average, Stephen Gostkowski is our first ranked kicker, so you're set here.

Defense Summary:

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Patriots', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Patriots + Cardinals = BUF | NYJ | ATL | BAL | HOU | SEA | NYG | CAR | CHI | SEA | STL | TEN | MIA | CAR | DET | STL
Patriots + Cowboys = BUF | NYJ | ATL | BAL | KC | TEN | ATL | SEA | MIA | GB | NYJ | OAK | NYG | SD | BUF | JAX
Patriots + Texans = BUF | TEN | ATL | OAK | ARI | TEN | SF | BUF | MIA | IND | TEN | NO | MIA | SEA | STL | MIA

Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2010 season.

Schedule Analysis
Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Eli Manning WAS DAL TB KC OAK NO ARI PHI SD ATL DEN DAL PHI WAS CAR
Aaron Rodgers CHI CIN STL MIN DET CLE MIN TB DAL SF DET BAL CHI PIT SEA

Jamaal Charles BAL OAK PHI NYG DAL WAS SD JAX OAK PIT SD DEN BUF CLE CIN
Brandon Jacobs WAS DAL TB KC OAK NO ARI PHI SD ATL DEN DAL PHI WAS CAR
Felix Jones TB NYG CAR DEN KC ATL SEA PHI GB WAS OAK NYG SD NO WAS
Michael Turner MIA CAR NE SF CHI DAL NO WAS CAR NYG TB PHI NO NYJ BUF

Nate Burleson STL SF CHI IND JAX ARI DAL DET ARI MIN STL SF HOU TB GB
Donald Driver CHI CIN STL MIN DET CLE MIN TB DAL SF DET BAL CHI PIT SEA
Braylon Edwards MIN DEN BAL CIN BUF PIT GB CHI BAL DET CIN SD PIT KC OAK
Lee Evans NE TB NO MIA CLE NYJ CAR HOU TEN JAX MIA NYJ KC NE ATL
Domenik Hixon WAS DAL TB KC OAK NO ARI PHI SD ATL DEN DAL PHI WAS CAR

Tony Gonzalez MIA CAR NE SF CHI DAL NO WAS CAR NYG TB PHI NO NYJ BUF
Marcedes Lewis IND ARI HOU TEN SEA STL TEN KC NYJ BUF SF HOU MIA IND NE

Stephen Gostkowski BUF NYJ ATL BAL DEN TEN TB MIA IND NYJ NO MIA CAR BUF JAX

New England Patriots BUF NYJ ATL BAL DEN TEN TB MIA IND NYJ NO MIA CAR BUF JAX

Relative Strength 99 101 100 99 97 106 108 102 97 93 100 101 98 98 100 99

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

* Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

* Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

* Week 10 presents moderate bye week issues: Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, and Domenik Hixon are not playing, and since only two NFL teams are off that week, your opponent will probably be close to full strength.

* Week 4 presents moderate bye week issues: Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez are not playing.

* Week 5 presents moderate bye week issues: Aaron Rodgers and Donald Driver are not playing.

* Braylon Edwards and Lee Evans are out in week 9, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

* In weeks 6, 7, and 8 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents
Listed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.

QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

RB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

WR: Chaz Schilens (9), Nate Burleson (7), Michael Jenkins (4), Earl Bennett (5), Percy Harvin (9), Chris Chambers (5), Muhsin Muhammad (4), Justin Gage (7), Nate Washington (7), Isaac Bruce (6).

TE: Kellen Winslow (8), Zach Miller (9), John Carlson (7), Dustin Keller (9), Jeremy Shockey (5), Heath Miller (8), Visanthe Shiancoe (9), Vernon Davis (6), Brent Celek (4), Anthony Fasano (6), Todd Heap (7), Tony Scheffler (7), Randy McMichael (9), Chris Baker (8), Jermichael Finley (5), Marcedes Lewis (7).

PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TD: Tennessee Titans (7), Green Bay Packers (5), New York Jets (9), Dallas Cowboys (6), New England Patriots (8), Arizona Cardinals (4), Buffalo Bills (9), Seattle Seahawks (7), Miami Dolphins (6), Indianapolis Colts (6).

Projections and Player Summaries
Player Cmp Att YD Y/A TD INT Rsh YD TD FPT Rank
Aaron Rodgers 317 528 3791 7.2 25 15 48 180 2 257.6 3
Eli Manning 297 505 3257 6.4 21 15 20 17 1 194.0 18

Eli Manning - Manning has the experience and track record to comfortably expect Top 12 to 15 numbers at the worst. The question fantasy owners must ask themselves is whether the youth movement at WR can overcome the loss of Burress and whether any of that matters in December. Manning should be viewed as an excellent QB2 because he could put up QB1 numbers in any given week, but don't reach for him expecting QB1 production.

Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers had a wonderful season last year, and he has a great group of receivers. His numbers may take a slight downtick if the rushing attack improves, as expected, this season, but he is still likely to throw for 3,800 yards and 26+ touchdowns this season. He was the third-best fantasy quarterback in 2008 and should finish Top 5 once again in 2009.

Player Rsh YD Y/Rsh TD Rec YD TD FPT Rank
Michael Turner 320 1440 4.5 12 11 73 0 240.8 6
Brandon Jacobs 255 1186 4.7 12 18 117 1 225.3 10
Jamaal Charles 120 528 4.4 3 38 285 2 130.3 33
Felix Jones 125 613 4.9 4 25 190 1 124.8 39

Jamaal Charles - HC Todd Haley knows that he can't go to Larry Johnson in passing situations, and this could be a year where the Chiefs are forced to throw the ball a lot while they play catch up. It's not crazy to project Charles to get a significant number of touches this season, and is worth a late round draft choice in PPR leagues especially.

Brandon Jacobs - As long as you're comfortable using a high draft pick on someone who probably will miss a few games, Jacobs is an attractive option as your RB1 and would be a dream option as an RB2 should he fall into the early second round. It's always tough to count on a runner replicating double-digit TDs, but Jacobs is a great short-yardage back and he should get more touches this year with Ward in Tampa Bay.

Felix Jones - Jones should back up Marion Barber and get more touches than most RB2s around the league. His ability to hit the home run makes him someone worth drafting. You can never predict when he'll break a big run or catch, but if you have to play three RBs in most weeks, Jones could be a daunting option as your RB3 or flex. And obviously if Barber gets hurt, Jones would be a stud-in-the-making.

Michael Turner - Michael Turner tore up the NFC in his first season as a starter, finishing #2 among all fantasy RBs last year. He posted an outstanding 4.5 yards per carry, rushed for over 200 yards twice and went over 100 yards rushing in eight out of 17 games. Turner is the type of fantasy back who can carry a team to victory on any given week. The Atlanta offense has improved during the offseason with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, which will help Turner find more room to roam during 2009.

Player Rsh YD TD Rec YD Y/Rec TD FPT Rank
Braylon Edwards 0 0 0 71 1044 14.7 7 185.9 15
Donald Driver 2 6 0 66 858 13.0 6 157.4 30
Lee Evans 2 12 0 59 850 14.4 6 153.7 32
Domenik Hixon 2 12 0 55 726 13.2 5 133.3 39
Nate Burleson 0 0 0 50 615 12.3 5 116.5 45

Nate Burleson - Nate Burleson was on his way to being a productive starter and punt returner in Seattle before he suffered a torn ACL in Week 1. Burleson has looked healthy in OTAs, but he probably won't truly test the knee until training camp. Now he is in a dogfight with oft-injured Deion Branch and rookie third-round pick Deon Butler to start at split end opposite marquee free agent pickup T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

Donald Driver - Driver will likely remain the secondbest option at the receiver position in Green Bay, but don't rule out Jordy Nelson passing him in the depth charts with a great preseason. Driver's numbers may take a small hit if the Packers pass a little less this season, but he will at least remain a viable fantasy WR3

Braylon Edwards - Once the QB controversy is settled and the crazy decision to shop Edwards in a trade falls out of memory, the Browns can head into camp focused on getting the job done right. Edwards only benefits from this as a consistent QB helps him return to his top form from 2007. Edwards will reward anyone who takes a shot on him this season.

Lee Evans - The Bills now appear to have most of the pieces in place for a productive passing attack, minus trading away LT Jason Peters. Although Owens will command plenty of targets, he should also draw much of the coverage to his side of the field and Evans is a nightmare for most CBs in man coverage. Evans could improve on last year's numbers and provide a solid WR2 option for your fantasy team.

Domenik Hixon - It shouldn't surprise you if Domenik Hixon starts all 16 games and leads the Giants in receptions. But it also shouldn't surprise you if he's displaced as a starter by midseason. He'll almost certainly be a starter early in the year but won't put up big numbers consistently. The Giants are going to spread the ball around, and Hixon is suitable mainly as a fantasy backup with upside if the younger players flounder.

Player Rec YD Y/Rec TD FPT Rank
Tony Gonzalez 68 755 11.1 6 147.5 3
Marcedes Lewis 36 410 11.4 3 77.0 23

Tony Gonzalez - Gonzalez snagged 90+ catches the last two years with Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard, and Brodie Croyle. He's been a Top 3 TE in nine of the past 10 seasons. Now he is playing with Matt Ryan on a stacked offense. Gonzalez could be poised for another double-digit TD season in Atlanta this year.

Marcedes Lewis - Marcedes Lewis likely won't see enough targets to be considered as a fantasy starter. He's a marginal fantasy backup in 12-team leagues.

Player FGM FGA XPM XPA FPT Rank
Stephen Gostkowski 34 40 51 51 153.0 1

Stephen Gostkowski - The Patriots finished 19th in kicker scoring in both 2005 and 2006, after having been first in 2004. In 2007 they jumped back up to 2nd thanks to their ridiculous number of touchdowns. Last year they again ranked 2nd, thanks to a large (although not ridiculous) number of field goals. They once again scored 100+ kicking points. The last time they failed to do so was 1995. Gostkowski, the young solid kicker, is back this year. Matt Cassel is gone, but Tom Brady could be a decent quarterback. The same coaching staff that loves to win and usually does is back this year, minus offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The Patriots back-to-back top fives in kicker scoring is uncommon. Over the past two decades it happened only 17 times previously. How did those teams fare in the year afterwards? Six remained in the top five, six dropped into the 6th to 10th range, and five dropped out of the top ten.

Player Sack FR INT TD Yd/G Pt/G FPT Rank
New England Patriots 39 11 17 5 300 17.6 135.2 12

New England Patriots - Despite finishing in the top half of the league in nearly every important defensive category, the Patriots once again spent both dollars and draft picks to improve on defense. All the faces will be new at corner where veterans Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden will be joined by second round pick Darius Butler as the Top 3. First round pick Patrick Chung is an intimidating SS in the Rodney Harrison mold and should claim that job by during camp. Another new starter will be at OLB where there is a 3-man competition to replace Mike Vrabel. This may be the one kink in the Patriots armor as they have no proven replacement. Last season's third round pick Shawn Crable spent the season on IR with a shin injury while Pierre Woods and Tully Banta-Cain are career backups with limited potential. The club made a run at Jason Taylor but lost out to division rival Miami and the loss of third round LB Tyrone McKenzie to an early knee injury just adds to the concern at LB. New England is very deep in the secondary and second round pick Ron Brace adds quality to an already deep DL. If they can find an answer at LB and stay healthy there, this perennial Top 10 fantasy defense should be right there again.

Fun facts

* Michael Turner had eight games last year where he rushed for 100 yards or more, including one 200-yard game

* Brandon Jacobs had multiple TD games in 5 of the 13 regular season games he appeared in last year

* Aaron Rodgers is coming off his first full season as a starter that saw him reach 4000 yards passing and 28 TD passes

* Braylon Edwards has three consecutive years of at least 123 targets. He has 13 red zone receptions in the last two years of which 11 went for TDs

* Tony Gonzalez is coming off back to back 90-catch seasons. Last year he finished the season with more fantasy points than Brandon Marshall (166 vs. 162).

* Stephen Gostkowski has the highest career field goal percentage in Patriot's history.

[Fred]

shit, if it's that easy do mine. i know my wrs are my weakest link

[Terrorblaze]

shit, if it's that easy do mine. i know my wrs are my weakest link

:bananadance:

QB: Peyton Manning, David Garrard
RB: Matt Forte, Ronnie Brown, Larry Johnson, Chester Taylor, Jerious Norwood
WR: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Devin Hester, Bernard Berrian, Jerricho Cotchery
TE: Greg Olsen
PK: Mason Crosby
TD: Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks

Overview:

We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back, and tight end is a plus for this team as well. Your squad is therefore easy for us to like despite a bit of weakness at the receiver position. But as weaknesses go, this is one is survivable. It's usually relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season. As long as you stay on top of things inseason, you should be the league favorite or very close to it.

Players we particularly like on this team include David Garrard, Matt Forte, Greg Olsen, Chester Taylor, Jerricho Cotchery, Jerious Norwood, Ronnie Brown, Bernard Berrian, the Seahawks defense, and the Bears defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
* With average inseason management, we think you have a 92 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 3 of 2008:
Ronnie Brown vs. NE: 122 combined yards, 5 TD
Matt Forte vs. TB: 155 combined yards, 1 TD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. NYG: 146 receiving yards, 1 TD
Larry Johnson vs. ATL: 121 combined yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

We expect Peyton Manning to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.

David Garrard, who we have rated as the #8 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Manning plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.

Incidentally, Garrard has what we project as a neutral matchup (STL) during Manning's bye.

RB Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.9 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Matt Forte ranked second and Ronnie Brown ranked 13th.

Your bench also looks good. Larry Johnson should serve as a very solid third running back. We also very much approve of the selection of Chester Taylor, and not just because you can hold the Adrian Peterson owner hostage. He's a fine fourth running back in his own right.

Jerious Norwood is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

A quick note about the same-team Forte/Devin Hester and Forte/Greg Olsen duos you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.

WR Summary:

We see both your starters at receiver as below average. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is our #14 ranked receiver, and we have Devin Hester at #23.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. We love Bernard Berrian as a third receiver. Jerricho Cotchery will also be among the best WR4s in the league.

Again, the same-team aspect of the Hester/Greg Olsen duo does not concern us.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have T.J. Houshmandzadeh ranked as high as fourth, which would make him an above average first receiver. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "I am very excited by the relocation of Houshmandzadeh to Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck is reportedly healthy again and the two have already established a great chemistry in the red zone according to local media. After many reps in training camp, this relationship has been solidified. I look for Houshmandzadeh to be a top-10 fantasy receiver in any format, and he'll probably challenge for top-5 status in PPR leagues. I think he's in for a monster year."

TE Summary:

Greg Olsen should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked fourth overall at the position. Given your league rules and the presence of Olsen, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.

Kicker Summary:

With Mason Crosby, you should be above average at the position.

Defense Summary:

Between the Bears and the Seahawks, you should get above average production here.

Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2010 season.

Schedule Analysis
Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
David Garrard IND ARI HOU TEN SEA STL TEN KC NYJ BUF SF HOU MIA IND NE
Peyton Manning JAX MIA ARI SEA TEN STL SF HOU NE BAL HOU TEN DEN JAX NYJ

Ronnie Brown ATL IND SD BUF NYJ NO NYJ NE TB CAR BUF NE JAX TEN HOU
Matt Forte GB PIT SEA DET ATL CIN CLE ARI SF PHI MIN STL GB BAL MIN
Larry Johnson BAL OAK PHI NYG DAL WAS SD JAX OAK PIT SD DEN BUF CLE CIN
Jerious Norwood MIA CAR NE SF CHI DAL NO WAS CAR NYG TB PHI NO NYJ BUF
Chester Taylor CLE DET SF GB STL BAL PIT GB DET SEA CHI ARI CIN CAR CHI

Bernard Berrian CLE DET SF GB STL BAL PIT GB DET SEA CHI ARI CIN CAR CHI
Jerricho Cotchery HOU NE TEN NO MIA BUF OAK MIA JAX NE CAR BUF TB ATL IND
Devin Hester GB PIT SEA DET ATL CIN CLE ARI SF PHI MIN STL GB BAL MIN
T.J. Houshmandzadeh STL SF CHI IND JAX ARI DAL DET ARI MIN STL SF HOU TB GB

Greg Olsen GB PIT SEA DET ATL CIN CLE ARI SF PHI MIN STL GB BAL MIN

Mason Crosby CHI CIN STL MIN DET CLE MIN TB DAL SF DET BAL CHI PIT SEA

Chicago Bears GB PIT SEA DET ATL CIN CLE ARI SF PHI MIN STL GB BAL MIN
Seattle Seahawks STL SF CHI IND JAX ARI DAL DET ARI MIN STL SF HOU TB GB

Relative Strength 100 100 102 108 92 95 99 108 101 104 98 100 101 101 98 99

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

* Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

* Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

* Week 5 presents serious bye week issues for you: Matt Forte, Devin Hester, Greg Olsen, Mason Crosby, and Chicago Bears are off.

* Week 6 presents serious bye week issues for you: Peyton Manning and Ronnie Brown are off.

* David Garrard, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Seattle Seahawks are out in week 7, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

* Chester Taylor, Bernard Berrian, and Jerricho Cotchery are out in week 9, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

* In weeks 4, 8, and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents
Listed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.

QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

RB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

WR: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TE: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TD: Tennessee Titans (7), Green Bay Packers (5), New England Patriots (8), New York Jets (9), Buffalo Bills (9), Seattle Seahawks (7), Miami Dolphins (6), Dallas Cowboys (6), Indianapolis Colts (6), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8).

Projections and Player Summaries
Player Cmp Att YD Y/A TD INT Rsh YD TD FPT Rank
Peyton Manning 332 525 3859 7.4 28 14 23 28 1 253.2 4
David Garrard 308 500 3385 6.8 19 13 60 264 2 227.8 8

David Garrard - Garrard should have a fantasy season comparable to last year's. Holt will provide some help, but he isn't the superstar he used to be. The offensive line should be better, but that will probably make a bigger difference in the running game than in the passing game. The Jaguars probably won't play from behind as often, but if they can better sustain drives, they'll have more total offensive plays. All in all, we can probably expect comparable yardage numbers and 15 to 20 TDs.

Peyton Manning - Manning got off to a slow start last season after undergoing knee surgery in July. He skipped the preseason and wasn't quite himself during the first few games. After averaging just 15.8 fantasy points per game during the first three games, he averaged a much more Manning-like 20.9 fantasy points per game over the remaining 13 games. Manning will be drafted as a Top 3 fantasy QB in most leagues and is a decent bet to live up to his draft position.

Player Rsh YD Y/Rsh TD Rec YD TD FPT Rank
Matt Forte 300 1185 4.0 8 59 413 3 263.3 2
Ronnie Brown 230 978 4.3 8 45 342 2 219.5 13
Larry Johnson 220 935 4.2 7 20 136 1 169.1 25
Chester Taylor 105 446 4.2 3 41 324 2 127.5 36
Jerious Norwood 105 551 5.2 3 33 271 1 122.7 41

Ronnie Brown - Brown should have a strong season in 2009. He surprised by returning from injury effectively last season and this year should have more explosiveness and confidence on the field. The club really limited his carries last season, but he is capable of 20+ carries per game when healthy and on his game.

Matt Forte - Forte had a surprisingly effective first fantasy season in 2008, finishing as the fourth-best RB. In all likelihood, he will improve in a number of areas this season including his YPC that was an uninspiring 3.9 in 2008. With the Bears having upgraded the offensive line, Forte should have another very strong season. He is likely to receive the bulk of the work once again and should have no problem hitting 300 carries. He should easily finish in the Top 12 with a ceiling approaching the Top 3.

Larry Johnson - Johnson should get plenty of carries this year for the Chiefs, and he likely will be the primary option when they get inside the 5-yard line. They probably won't throw to him more than a couple of times per game, so don't expect a lot of receiving yards from the big back. That lack of receiving (and operating in a poor offense) puts a lid on Johnson's potential.

Jerious Norwood - Jerious Norwood is a fine pass-catching RB who is a perfect complement to Michael Turner. He was the 37th-best fantasy RB in the land last year, making Norwood a viable fill-in player in weeks when the matchup was particularly good, and he's a spectacular insurance policy for Turner. Norwood is a threat to take the football to the house on any given play - he has killer speed. If the need arises, he could step into the starting/featured role in Atlanta - his career average rushing the ball is 5.8 yards per carry, and he has averaged 9.4 yards per reception during his time in the NFL thus far.

Chester Taylor - Chester Taylor is a very good back in his own right. In fact, he could likely start for a number of NFL teams around the league. However, Adrian Peterson is poised for another monster season, and the addition of rookie WR Percy Harvin could cut into Taylor's production. Harvin has amazing quickness and will have a number of plays called for him throughout the season. Those include a few runs and hitch passes every game, which could result in fewer touches for Taylor.

Player Rsh YD TD Rec YD Y/Rec TD FPT Rank
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 1 7 0 82 959 11.7 8 189.6 14
Devin Hester 5 40 0 62 874 14.1 7 166.4 23
Bernard Berrian 3 20 0 62 921 14.9 6 165.1 24
Jerricho Cotchery 2 10 0 74 881 11.9 6 164.1 25

Bernard Berrian - The Vikings rushing attack is powerful, and Berrian will often see single-coverage which he can exploit down the field with speed. The main question is whether Sage Rosenfels and/or Tarvaris Jackson will provide improved quarterbacking in 2009 now that Brett Favre has decided to stay retired.

Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery already has a 1,100-yard season and two 82-catch campaigns to his credit. His touchdown total rebounded from two to five a year ago, and that could see another slight uptick this year with Coles gone. Cotchery is very talented and adept after the catch and is no slouch in the deep passing game.

Devin Hester - Having Cutler as quarterback will give Hester no room for excuses. He finally has a top-tier passer, so now he just has to get open. Cutler should be able to find Hester on deep patterns, but the WR will need to develop more as a route-runner if he is to be a viable fantasy starter.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh - While Houshmandzadeh's team situation in Cincinnati deteriorated last year, he himself has been a steady performer in each of the last four seasons. Houshmandzadeh should be viewed as a strong WR2 in twelve-team leagues, and while he lacks the upside potential of more explosive, big-play receivers, he also presents little risk for his expected draft position.

Player Rec YD Y/Rec TD FPT Rank
Greg Olsen 66 713 10.8 6 140.3 4

Greg Olsen - Olsen will elevate from "good" to "great" in 2009. He has the tools to be an elite player. With a capable QB, Olsen should set career highs in receptions, yardage and touchdowns. He'll share some time with Desmond Clark but expect Olsen to see most of the targets as he begins to reach his potential.

Player FGM FGA XPM XPA FPT Rank
Mason Crosby 34 40 44 44 146.0 3

Mason Crosby - Crosby has been perfect on PATs and on field goals under 30 yards. Of his four misses from 30 to 39 yards, one hit the upright and two were blocked. He has left room for improvement on 40+ yard kicks, going 20 of 31. In the NFL Mason has still displayed his range, making three from 50+ yards each year, including a long of 53 yards each year. On kickoffs he averaged 64.7 yards and had 17 touchbacks last year, making him one of the better kickers in that department. From 2005 to 2007, the Packers jumped from 29th to 14th up to 1st in kicker scoring. That occurred despite having an all new coaching staff, a new offensive line scheme, several new starters along the line, and two new kickers during that stretch. Last year the only significant change was a new starting quarterback, and the Packers ended up 7th in kicker scoring. This year the offense and its coaches remain the same. Mason will have a new special teams coordinator who was promoted from assistant. What happens to kicker scoring in the second year after having been number one? Looking at the two teams that were number one prior to Green Bay: the Cardinals dropped from 1st to 8th to 17th and the Bears dropped from 1st to 7th to 15th.

Player Sack FR INT TD Yd/G Pt/G FPT Rank
Chicago Bears 35 14 19 7 319 19.8 165.4 7
Seattle Seahawks 39 12 15 5 327 19.9 145.4 13

Chicago Bears - The Bears had a solid pass rush, a Top 5 finish in interceptions, six combined special teams/defensive touchdwns, and a Top 10 fantasy finish in 2008. Head Coach Lovie Smith changed up his defensive front last season and successfully improved against the run, but a Bottom 5 pass defense was often the team's undoing. Smith has hinted that he may move back toward his Cover-2/Tampa-2 roots in 2009, which could improve the team's points against and yardage against figures. Veteran DE Adewale Ogunleye will continue to be the team's primary pass rusher, while the back seven will again be anchored by MLB Brian Urlacher and CB Charles Tillman. The Bears will still have question marks in the secondary where the corner and free safety play will need to improve if this defense is to return to its once stingy ways. Kick returners Devin Hester and Danieal Manning will continue to provide added value and should keep the Bears a solid fantasy option even if the defense struggles to remain consistent. Expect the Bears to again be one of the first defenses to come off the draft board.

Seattle Seahawks - Aside from a Top 10 finish in sacks, Seattle was well below average in every major defensive category last season, including Bottom 10 finishes in both points and yardage allowed. Under new head coach Jim Mora and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, the team will try to ramp up their aggressiveness this season. It may be difficult for the team to follow up on its 35 sack season without OLB Julian Peterson, who was dealt to Detroit for DL Cory Redding. The status of defensive end Patrick Kerney is also a question, given the multiple surgeries the veteran has undergone in the past 12 months. The Seahawks will replace Peterson with fourth overall pick Aaron Curry who was the consensus best outside linebacker in the draft. Even a fully healty Kerney and productive Curry aren't likely to improve this defense enough to make them roster worthy in fantasy leagues.

Fun facts

* Matt Forte was the first rookie RB to eclipse 300 carries since LaDainian Tomlinson did it in 2001

* Since 2006, Peyton Manning has averaged exactly two games per year, where he did not have a TD pass. He has never had less than 26 TD passes in any season of his 11 year career. He has reached 4000 yards passing in nine of those 11 seasons

* Ronnie Brown had 10 rushing TDs last year, but four of them came against the Patriots in week three. He had only two games of 20+ carries and he had only one 100-yard rushing game after week five

* TJ Houshmandzadeh has at least 90 receptions or more in each of his last three years

* Larry Johnson averaged 5.6 YPC in six games at home last year compared to 3.5 YPC in six games on the road

* Mason Crosby score 141 points in his rookie year, placing Green Bay atop the kicker scoring rankings.

[Fred]

It's interesting that the site you're using is so high on Gerrard. I liked him because of the second half he had last season. He tore it up. I was surprised I got him so late in the draft.

['Sider]

Do me baby.... /Prince :ninja: