Terrorblaze
09-06-2009, 11:37 PM
*waits for terror to post a sweet overview*
:bananadance: oh snap
QB: Tom Brady, Jay Cutler
RB: Michael Turner, Thomas Jones, Chris Wells, Felix Jones
WR: Greg Jennings, Vincent Jackson, Kevin Walter, Hakeem Nicks
TE: Dustin Keller, Kevin Boss
PK: Nick Folk
TD: Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers
Overview:
This team is built around strong quarterback play. Despite not being strong at running back and receiver, we think this team should be the league favorite or very close to it.
Nevertheless, we feel compelled to mention that the RB and WR positions make us a bit nervious and are likely to require some attention throughout the year. We'd feel much better if we knew you were committed to scooping up 2009's breakout players at RB and WR. Getting one or more of these would take this team to the next level.
Players we particularly like on this team include Tom Brady, Jay Cutler, and Chris Wells. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
* With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
* With good inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
* With average inseason management, we think you have a 72 percent chance of making the playoffs.
QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Tom Brady should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #1 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 4.3 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
We also love Jay Cutler as a backup. In fact, we think he's good enough to be someone's starting quarterback in this league. With Brady in place as your starter, he's something of a luxury for you. If he plays like we expect, you should be able to get good value for him in a trade after quarterback injuries hit some of your opponents.
Incidentally, Cutler has what we project as a good matchup (CLE) during Brady's bye.
RB Summary:
Your starting running backs should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Michael Turner as a top RB. Our projections have Turner ranked at #4 and Thomas Jones ranked at #19.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Chris Wells should serve as a very solid third running back.
Felix Jones is a solid depth pick.
A quick note about the same-team Jones/Dustin Keller duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.
WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Greg Jennings is our #7 ranked receiver, Vincent Jackson is #19, and we have Kevin Walter 40th.
We don't particularly like Hakeem Nicks as a fourth receiver.
We might suggest adding a bit more depth here. See the end of the report for some suggestions on who to pick up.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Greg Jennings as high as #2, which would make him an above average first receiver. Matt Waldman's take: "Greg Jennings proved in 2008 that he wasn't just Brett Farve's favorite receiver, coming just eight yards shy of 1300 yards with first-year starter Aaron Rodgers under center. Jennings is one of those all-around receivers fantasy owners love because if you play him short to prevent his strong YAC skills, then he'll show you why he's one of the top 10 deep ball receivers in the NFL. If you stop him on the perimeter, he'll go across the middle to get the tough yards. "
Some members of our staff have Vincent Jackson ranked as high as 10th, which would make him a great second receiver and even a legitimate WR1. Matt Waldman defends his high ranking as follows: "Apparently 1098 yards and seven scores in '08 was a fluke year for Jackson, because thus far I'm the only guy ranking him in the top 12 again in '09. Now that there is no impending suspension this year after his January arrest for driving under the influence, there is no reason he isn't a high-end fantasy starter. Jackson was clearly Phillip Rivers' favorite target. This may change with Gates and LT healthy and ready for a rebound in '09, but Jackson's size, speed, and development doesn't go away. He's a productive receiver down field and in the red zone and I expect the Chargers to use him more, not less, in 2009. "
Some of our staffers have Kevin Walter as high as #27, which would make him an above average third receiver. David Yudkin's take: "Appears to be taking over for Isaac Bruce in earning the the annual most undervalued WR award."
Some of our staffers have Hakeem Nicks as high as #33, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Jeff Tefertiller's take: "Nicks has all of the tools to produce right away. He gives the Giants a sure-handed playmaker that they have missed since the departure of Plaxico Burress. Nicks should start early on and be a good depth WR with plenty of upside this season and a future star in the league. His performance against West Virginia in the bowl game was amazing. I expect him to have a big impact early on."
TE Summary:
Dustin Keller is viable but below average as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #11). We're also not too fired up about Kevin Boss as a backup.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Dustin Keller as high as #5, which would make him an above average first tight end. Andy Hicks's take: "With only the running backs and Jerricho Cotchery around to provide any pass catching experience, 2nd year man Dustin Keller will be called upon to plug any gaps in the passing game and provide the security blanket that rookie QB Mark Sanchez requires. Keller caught 48 balls in his debut season and generally won rave reviews for his play. Expectations will be high in 2009, but Keller is more than capable of moving into the upper echelons of fantasy Tight Ends."
Some of our staffers have Kevin Boss as high as #12, which would make him a great second tight end and even a legitimate TE1. Mark Wimer's take: "Though the Giants did draft Travis Beckum to backup Kevin Boss this year, the rookie TE shouldn't be a threat to Boss. It usually takes a year or 2 for a TE to absorb the NFL game, and Boss vastly improved his numbers in his sophomore season with the Giants. I think Boss will continue to improve over the 2009 season, and may be a borderline TE1 in PPR leagues (and he'll be a very solid TE2 for his fantasy owners). Boss caught 4 of his 6 TDs after week 9 last season - he and Eli Manning's comfort level grew as the season progressed. "
Kicker Summary:
Nick Folk, our ninth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.
Defense Summary:
When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Dolphins', along with the combined schedule that each would create:
Dolphins + Cardinals = ATL | JAX | SD | BUF | NYJ | SEA | NYG | NYJ | CHI | SEA | STL | TEN | MIN | SF | TEN | STL
Dolphins + Seahawks = STL | SF | CHI | BUF | NYJ | ARI | NO | NYJ | DET | ARI | CAR | STL | SF | HOU | TEN | HOU
Dolphins + Texans = NYJ | TEN | SD | OAK | ARI | CIN | SF | BUF | IND | TB | TEN | BUF | JAX | SEA | TEN | MIA
Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2010 season.
Schedule Analysis
Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted
At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Tom Brady BUF NYJ ATL BAL DEN TEN TB MIA IND NYJ NO MIA CAR BUF JAX
Jay Cutler GB PIT SEA DET ATL CIN CLE ARI SF PHI MIN STL GB BAL MIN
Felix Jones TB NYG CAR DEN KC ATL SEA PHI GB WAS OAK NYG SD NO WAS
Thomas Jones HOU NE TEN NO MIA BUF OAK MIA JAX NE CAR BUF TB ATL IND
Michael Turner MIA CAR NE SF CHI DAL NO WAS CAR NYG TB PHI NO NYJ BUF
Chris Wells SF JAX IND HOU SEA NYG CAR CHI SEA STL TEN MIN SF DET STL
Vincent Jackson OAK BAL MIA PIT DEN KC OAK NYG PHI DEN KC CLE DAL CIN TEN
Greg Jennings CHI CIN STL MIN DET CLE MIN TB DAL SF DET BAL CHI PIT SEA
Hakeem Nicks WAS DAL TB KC OAK NO ARI PHI SD ATL DEN DAL PHI WAS CAR
Kevin Walter NYJ TEN JAX OAK ARI CIN SF BUF IND TEN IND JAX SEA STL MIA
Kevin Boss WAS DAL TB KC OAK NO ARI PHI SD ATL DEN DAL PHI WAS CAR
Dustin Keller HOU NE TEN NO MIA BUF OAK MIA JAX NE CAR BUF TB ATL IND
Nick Folk TB NYG CAR DEN KC ATL SEA PHI GB WAS OAK NYG SD NO WAS
Carolina Panthers PHI ATL DAL WAS TB BUF ARI NO ATL MIA NYJ TB NE MIN NYG
Miami Dolphins ATL IND SD BUF NYJ NO NYJ NE TB CAR BUF NE JAX TEN HOU
Relative Strength 98 100 101 98 97 105 107 96 97 99 99 101 99 99 102 100
Schedule and Matchup Notes:
* Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.
* Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).
* Week 5 presents moderate bye week issues: Jay Cutler, Vincent Jackson, and Greg Jennings are not playing.
* Week 8 presents moderate bye week issues: Tom Brady is not playing.
* Thomas Jones and Dustin Keller are out in week 9, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
* Hakeem Nicks, Kevin Walter, and Kevin Boss are out in week 10, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
* Michael Turner, Chris Wells, and Carolina Panthers are out in week 4, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
* In weeks 6 and 7 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.
Potential Free Agents
Listed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.
QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.
RB: Donald Brown (6), Jonathan Stewart (4), Fred Taylor (8), Earnest Graham (8), Jamaal Charles (8), Jamal Lewis (9), Felix Jones (6), Fred Jackson (9), Julius Jones (7), LenDale White (7).
WR: Laurent Robinson (9), Hakeem Nicks (10), Mark Bradley (8), Joey Galloway (8), Michael Clayton (8), Troy Williamson (7), Bryant Johnson (7), Patrick Crayton (6), Bobby Engram (8), Malcolm Kelly (8), Kevin Curtis (4), Chaz Schilens (9), Deon Butler (7), Mike Walker (7), Limas Sweed (8), Jeremy Maclin (4), Greg Camarillo (6), Chansi Stuckey (9), Jason Avant (4).
TE: Owen Daniels (10), John Carlson (7), Zach Miller (9), Dustin Keller (9), Jeremy Shockey (5), Heath Miller (8), Vernon Davis (6), Visanthe Shiancoe (9), Brent Celek (4), Todd Heap (7), Anthony Fasano (6), Tony Scheffler (7), Randy McMichael (9), Chris Baker (8), Jermichael Finley (5), Marcedes Lewis (7), Kevin Boss (10).
PK: Ryan Longwell (9), Nick Folk (6), Lawrence Tynes (10), Kris Brown (10), Robbie Gould (5), Adam Vinatieri (6), Jeff Reed (8), John Kasay (4), Josh Scobee (7), Joe Nedney (6).
TD: Tennessee Titans (7), Green Bay Packers (5), New York Jets (9), Dallas Cowboys (6), New England Patriots (8), Arizona Cardinals (4), Buffalo Bills (9), Seattle Seahawks (7), Miami Dolphins (6), Indianapolis Colts (6), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8), Houston Texans (10), Carolina Panthers (4).
Projections and Player Summaries
Player Cmp Att YD Y/A TD INT Rsh YD TD FPT Rank
Tom Brady 371 571 4191 7.3 33 14 31 53 1 390.9 1
Jay Cutler 327 530 3535 6.7 23 16 47 162 1 304.9 9
Tom Brady - It's unlikely the Patriots offense will take a nosedive with Brady coming back. Given the arsenal Brady has to work with, he should be in for another Top 5 fantasy season if healthy. He has already displayed what could happen if all the planets align properly and could lap many other QBs in fantasy scoring. However, the Pats have bulked up their running attack and may try to implement more of a ball-control offense in order to keep their defense off the field more than in recent seasons. That could also lead to a lot of dink and dunk passes - something Matt Cassel made a living on last year and a scheme the Patriots have used at times with Brady.
Jay Cutler - Without question, the Bears weapons on offense are not as skilled as what Cutler enjoyed in Denver. The receiving position is still a huge question mark with Devin Hester not a legitimate top receiver and Rashied Davis still unproven. Even the backup receivers have huge question marks as players such as Earl Bennett and rookie Joaquin Iglesias are unproven at this level (although Bennett has looked great so far in minicamp). However, Cutler is cut from the same cloth as QB Brett Favre. He has a certain swagger about him, and it is very probable he will make the players better around him with his ability to get the ball down the field. He is a huge upgrade to the position in Chicago.
Player Rsh YD Y/Rsh TD Rec YD TD FPT Rank
Michael Turner 320 1440 4.5 12 11 73 0 223.3 4
Thomas Jones 230 966 4.2 7 26 166 1 161.2 19
Chris Wells 200 810 4.0 8 12 77 0 136.7 30
Felix Jones 125 613 4.9 4 25 190 1 110.3 38
Felix Jones - Jones should back up Marion Barber and get more touches than most RB2s around the league. His ability to hit the home run makes him someone worth drafting. You can never predict when he'll break a big run or catch, but if you have to play three RBs in most weeks, Jones could be a daunting option as your RB3 or flex. And obviously if Barber gets hurt, Jones would be a stud-in-the-making.
Thomas Jones - Jones will still score, but his touchdown total will probably fall in between the two he had in 2007 and the 15 of a season ago. Greene is expected to fill the goal line role, which takes away a large portion of Jones' scores since he's not really a breakaway threat. He also faltered a bit late in the season last year, so the Jets could look to limit his touches while at the same time getting their other dynamic runners on the field.
Michael Turner - Michael Turner tore up the NFC in his first season as a starter, finishing #2 among all fantasy RBs last year. He posted an outstanding 4.5 yards per carry, rushed for over 200 yards twice and went over 100 yards rushing in eight out of 17 games. Turner is the type of fantasy back who can carry a team to victory on any given week. The Atlanta offense has improved during the offseason with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, which will help Turner find more room to roam during 2009.
Player Rsh YD TD Rec YD Y/Rec TD FPT Rank
Greg Jennings 0 0 0 81 1223 15.1 9 176.3 7
Vincent Jackson 4 28 0 62 930 15.0 7 137.8 19
Kevin Walter 2 10 0 55 715 13.0 5 102.5 40
Hakeem Nicks 1 5 0 44 563 12.8 3 74.8 57
Vincent Jackson - It appears that Jackson has established himself as the Chargers' top WR, but he is probably a slight underdog to break the 1,000-yard mark again. He should roughly match his seven TDs from last season, and be a WR2 (or very strong WR3) in 12-team fantasy leagues.
Greg Jennings - There is no reason to anticipate a drop in his statistics in 2009. Jennings is young and entering the prime of his career. If the Packers rushing attack thrives this season, he could see a slight drop but he should still finish as a Top 10 receiver in 2009 with a ceiling that soars into the Top 5.
Hakeem Nicks - Hakeem Nicks most likely starts the season as the WR3 behind Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon, but he could move into a starting role at any point. If and when he becomes a starter, he's certainly worth having on your fantasy roster. His sure hands and precise route-running make him one of the more compelling rookie WRs to target in redrafts.
Kevin Walter - Walter is unlikely to duplicate his TD total from 2008, and he is therefore unlikely to repeat as a Top 20 fantasy WR. While he has a chance to finish as a WR2 again this season, he will more likely be a weak WR3 or strong WR4.
Player Rec YD Y/Rec TD FPT Rank
Dustin Keller 57 656 11.5 4 89.6 11
Kevin Boss 34 343 10.1 4 58.3 24
Kevin Boss - Boss is entrenched as the starter, and he'll catch at least 30 passes and 3 TDs. Coming off a TE13 fantasy ranking, Boss is worth having on a roster as a backup.
Dustin Keller - Keller should improve on his rookie numbers and could be a Top 10 fantasy TE this year. While he'll likely see more coverage with Coles gone, he'll also see more targets. His athleticism should create mismatches with many defenders, so a significant uptick in productivity isn't out of the question.
Player FGM FGA XPM XPA FPT Rank
Nick Folk 29 34 41 41 128.0 9
Nick Folk - In addition to his accuracy, Folk also has a strong leg and good range. He has made 4 of 7 50+ yard field goals in his first two years. On kickoffs, the Cowboys didn't always let him loose on kickoffs last year however due to their struggling coverage unit. Folk averaged only 60.5 yards and did not have any touchbacks. Nonetheless, the Cowboys raised a few eyebrows when they drafted David Buehler in the fifth round this year. The athletic kicker is best known for his kickoffs and his bench pressing prowess at the Combine. Most teams fluctuate, often significantly, from year to year in kicker scoring. Dallas had been one of the exceptions. During their 90's dynasty years, they ranked in the top six for eight consecutive years. After that, they ranked in the bottom half each for the next seven years. In 2006 the pattern of stability changed, as they finally returned to the upper half, ranking 14th in kicker scoring, then vaulted to 4th in 2007, but then dropped to 26th last year. The Wade Phillips coaching regime is back for year number three, hoping to rediscover the first year's success. They do have a new special teams coordinator, although that tends to have more bearing on the real world Folk, while the offensive coaches have more impact on the fantasy Folk.
Player Sack FR INT TD Yd/G Pt/G FPT Rank
Miami Dolphins 41 13 16 4 313 20.4 130.3 16
Carolina Panthers 38 14 14 3 320 20.6 118.1 20
Carolina Panthers - The Panthers ranked in the middle of every important statistical category last season. Not surprisingly, they weren't an inspiring fantasy option either. The pivotal question here will be whether DE Julius Peppers signs his franchise tender and stays or succeeds in forcing a trade. The team's pass rush would suffer without him and the ripple effect would be felt throughout the defense. With the second round selection of Everett Brown the Panthers have done what they could to prepare for that possibility. On paper this unit appears capable of holding opponents yardage and scoring in check while generating plenty of big plays. MLB Jon Beason and WLB Thomas Davis both flourished in their respective roles last season. Richard Marshall and Chris Gamble are ball hawking corners with a nose for the end zone and safeties Chris Harris (eight forced fumbles in 2007) and Charles Godfrey, are capable of generating big plays. Though this team has disappointed in the year end rankings for two consecutive seasons, they should still be considered as a late DST2 pick in all league formats. If they go undrafted, don't hesitate to pick them up should they get off to a hot start.
Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins were a huge surprise in 2008 and their defense was a big reason. The ninth-best scoring defense also had 40 sacks and 30 takeaways, landing them among the Top 10 fantasy units. The one weakness that showed up last season was at 25th-rated pass defense. The club addressed that shortcoming by adding three potentially new starters in the secondary. Free agency landed Gibril Wilson who is among the league's best safeties, and Eric Green who was previously a starter in Arizona. They then further solidified the secondary in the draft by using their first round pick on corner Vontae Davis and a second on corner Sean Smith. Davis was arguably the top corner in this draft. He's a fast, physical playmaker who has the ability to match up with an opponent's best receiver. Wilson and Davis should step right into the starting lineup while Green will compete with holdover Will Allen at the other corner. A tougher schedule will make it difficult for the Dolphins to improve on last year's numbers, but they have certainly addressed their needs and should remain very productive. The return of Jason Taylor will be a big plus.
Fun facts
* Michael Turner had eight games last year where he rushed for 100 yards or more, including one 200-yard game
* Tom Brady is returning from an injured knee and his last full season where he set career highs in nearly every category
* Greg Jennings has had an increase in receptions and receiving yards in each of his first three years in the league.
* Thomas Jones has 290 carries or more in each of the last four years. In weeks 6-15 Jones did not have any less than 12 fantasy points in a game
* In the last six games of the 2008 regular season, Vincent Jackson averaged 11.2 FP/gm, 9th best among WRs in that span
* Jay Cutler had eight games of at least 300 yards passing last year. He was sacked only 11 times in 616 attempts for a league low 1.8% sack rate.
* Nick Folk scored 131 points during his rookie year and the Cowboys' 4th place ranking in kicker scoring was their first top ten finish since 1998.
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